Renowned Onchain Analyst PlanB is facing mounting criticism directed at his Bitcoin Stock to-flow cross-asset models after his prediction for a $135,000 floor price before the end of 2021 showed no signs of success.
According to a section of netizens, the models have been marred by various irregularities. Although there has been ongoing criticism since the models’ publication in March 2019, the most glaring of all disapprovals came in after PlanB predicted that Bitcoin’s price was poised to tap $98,000 in November and $135,000 by December.
According to him, despite Bitcoin earlier dipping below $34,000, a factor that he strongly attributed to Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crackdown, he had called on the six-figure price target before December 31 vowing to invalidate his S2F model if that failed.
Shifting Goal Posts?
However, on December 1st, the pundit was forced to shelve his ambitious predictions after Bitcoin showed no signs of recuperation having fallen into an extended sell-off after tapping an all-time high in early November.
Since the glaring failure, a section of his followers has been raising concerns about his insights with some calling the models a sham and blaming the pundit for what they call “shifting goalposts” once the models fail.
“So exactly when is the model invalidated? Because this argument can be stretched into infinity.” one netizen tweeted
“When exactly is your model invalidated? Never? Whatever happens, does it always stay the same? I will not row against you and to understand, otherwise, it just seems that you are trying to stay afloat,” another said.
Despite criticism, another group of supporters is however blaming the failed predictions on institutional and state engineered manipulation, which has been on the rise.
Ignorance or Just Sheer Arrogance?
Despite mounting disapproval, PlanB has continued to vouch for his price models, stating that he would not be distracted by dissenting quarters. A week ago the pundit even said that Bitcoin could still tap $100,000 before year close, with the help of a small miracle.
Although PlanB seems to have gone silent on time-based price predictions, he continues to support his S2F price model, calling for higher prices and clarifying that it is a long-term plan.
“$50K-$200K 1 standard deviation band feels wide. Some people think this makes S2F model invalid and not useful, but is it? Last cycle S2F model average was $7K with a 1sd band of $3.5K-$14K. Not wide from the current $50K perspective. The next cycle band will be $0.5M-$2M” he has recently said.
That said, the pundit is faced with an even harder task of convincing his 1.7 million followers on Twitter that his floor models still work, especially now that their trust seemed to be fading with the changing economic trends.
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